Tuesday, 23-May-2017 13:39
 
comments in
"Articles"
A message to woman engaging in political battlefields
I can't Agree more
Relations Between Regime and Opposition
thank you for this site GUYS.We need it sincerely
Democracy could not jump
Thanks dearfor your intellectual aspects about DEMOCRACY.you are always great EBTIHAG
Articles
Tuesday, 13-February-2007
Almotamar Net - Doctors use the word “crisis” to describe the point at which a patient either starts to recover or dies. President George W. Bush’s Iraqi patient now seems to have reached that point. Most commentators appear to think that Bush’s latest prescription – a surge of 20,000 additional troops to suppress the militias in Baghdad – will, at best, merely postpone the inevitable death of his dream of a democratic Iraq. Yet as “Battle of Baghdad” begins, factors beyond Bush’s control and not of his making (at least not intentionally) may just save Iraq from its doom. Almoitamar,net Project Syndicate - Doctors use the word “crisis” to describe the point at which a patient either starts to recover or dies. President George W. Bush’s Iraqi patient now seems to have reached that point. Most commentators appear to think that Bush’s latest prescription – a surge of 20,000 additional troops to suppress the militias in Baghdad – will, at best, merely postpone the inevitable death of his dream of a democratic Iraq. Yet as “Battle of Baghdad” begins, factors beyond Bush’s control and not of his making (at least not intentionally) may just save Iraq from its doom.

One key factor is that, for the first time since the United States and Britain invaded Iraq, Arab Sunni leaders are backing a US military plan for that country. These Sunni leaders live in abject fear of the geopolitical earthquake that any disintegration of political authority in Baghdad would bring, believing that all-out civil war would invariably follow – a war that would not respect international borders.

Of course, America has been encouraging Sunni leaders in this belief. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s recent tour of Middle East capitals helped spread the word to Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf states that any US failure and sudden withdrawal would be certain to destabilize them. Given the fragile grip that these leaders have over their societies, America’s warnings have been taken to heart.

But the truly curious factor that might bring success to Bush is that those who have opposed or resented America’s presence in Iraq, such as the Iranian-backed Shi’a parties now also appear to want Bush’s new strategy to succeed. They are for it because they believe it will defang Moqtada al-Sadr, the rogue Shi’a cleric whose power has mushroomed over the past three years – to the point that he now dominates much of Baghdad and holds the allegiance of countless angry young Shi’a men.

Of course, attacking Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army in the name of fighting militia death squads has the potential to draw American military forces into a level of urban warfare unseen since the Falluja assaults of 2004 and 2005. Al-Sadr is seen as the protector of the Shi’a of Iraq and has an estimated 60,000 fighters in his militia. But he is deeply mistrusted by other Shi’a leaders, who fear that they may one day have to take him on by themselves. Better to let the Americans do it, though of course these Shi’a leaders prefer a slow strangulation of al-Sadr to a direct and bloody assault.

But make no mistake: how al-Sadr is handled is the big test of Bush’s new strategy. Should the US choose to face al-Sadr and his forces head on, they risk alienating Iraq’s largest sectarian community, the Shi’a, adding fuel to the anti-occupation resistance and thus probably dooming Bush to failure.

Iran and Syria, which have played a spoiler role in Iraq up to now, may also now be anxious to find a way to pull the country back from the brink. Bush still refuses to talk to either of them, and has lately been having US troops arrest Iranian agents in Iraq. Yet Iran may already see itself as victorious, with the current Iraqi government friendlier than any the Iranians have ever known. So maintaining that government in office has now become a strategic priority for Iran, particularly as it is now clear that any US hopes of using Iraq as a permanent military base are dead.

The “surge” also opens, perhaps for the first time, a serious possibility of pouring water on the insurgent fires in Anbar province, the heartland of the Sunni insurgency. The US has achieved relative successes in the province through alliances with Sunni tribes. The hope is that such realistic and pragmatic accommodations will be extended to Iraqis who are fighting under the banner of a nationalist and anti-occupation agenda.

So some of the stars have come into alignment for Bush. But to keep them there in the long term, the Iraqi government will need to amend the constitution in a way that appeases the Sunni community. Reassuring Iraq’s Sunnis that they have a place in the new Iraq will also reassure neighboring Sunni governments, which have mostly turned a blind eye to the support for the insurgency that has come from their lands.

Of course, should the US see failure ahead, it could seek to broaden the war beyond Iraq’s borders by attacking Iran, a policy reminiscent of “Operation Sideshow,” when US failure in Vietnam in the late 1960’s enticed President Nixon into attacking Cambodia and Laos.

But Iran has resources that Cambodia and Laos could never muster; indeed, its ability to retaliate could set the entire region ablaze. Whereas America’s war in Indochina was a tragic mistake, the cost of a wider war precipitated by the crisis in Iraq would be incomparably greater – for both the patient and the doctor.

Mai Yamani is an author and broadcaster. Her most recent book is Cradle of Islam.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2007.
www.project-syndicate.org


More from "Articles"

Other titles:
Monday, 15-May-2017
The artillery of the army and popular forces shelled gatherings of Saudi-paid mercenaries in northeastern parties in Harib Al Qaramish district of Marib province.

The shelling hit Namlah valley area directly, killing and wounding a number of the mercenaries, the official added.
Monday, 15-May-2017
Saudi warplanes launched on Hamadan district of Sanaa province, a security official said on Monday.

The strikes hit Dhain Mountain, causing heavy damage to citizens' properties, the official added.
Sunday, 14-May-2017
Prime Minister Abdulaziz Saleh bin Habtoor met with visiting director of operations for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) Dominik Stillhart.
The meeting discussed aspects of enhancing cooperation between Yemen and the ICRC in the humanitarian field and developing mechanisms for joint action to alleviate the repercussions of aggression war states and siege against the public health, water and environment sectors.
The meeting reviewing the growing role of the ICRC in
Sunday, 14-May-2017
Foreign Minister Hisham Sharaf met with Dominik Stillhart, Director of Operations for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC).
The meeting dealt with efforts by the ICRC, reviewing violations carried out by the aggression states of Saudi and Emirates against the Yemeni people. It also discussed the file of war prisoners held by the aggression states and the blatant violations against them that openly breach the international laws and conventions.
Sunday, 14-May-2017
The army and the popular forces committees shot down on Sunday a reconnaissance plane belonging to the Saudi-led coalition in Hajjah province, a military official said.

The air defense forces shot the plane in Medi
Saturday, 13-May-2017
Army and people's committees bombed a Saudi army weapons store in Al Hamr site in Najran, a military official said on Saturday.
Meanwhile, the official said the army artillery and
Friday, 12-May-2017
The national forces carried out a missile attack on Najran province, a military official said Saturday.

The missile attack targeted positions of the Saudi soldiers near Najran Cement Factory, causing serious injuries upon the Saudi soldiers.
Thursday, 11-May-2017
Saudi aggression warplanes waged on Wednesday five air raids on several areas of Sa'ada province.

A security official said that the aggression coalition warplanes launched two raids on Shada and al-Dhaher district and targeted a main
Wednesday, 10-May-2017
The army and popular forces fired artillery targeting enemy Saudi military sites in Najran province and mercenaries in Medi desert, a military office said on Wednesday.

The shelling hit the targets accurately. Two enemy Saudi soldiers
Wednesday, 10-May-2017

Saudi fighter jets continued fierce strikes on citizens' houses and properties over the past hours in several provinces, a military official said on Tuesday.

The Saudi-paid mercenaries shot bullets on a child in Al Maton district of Jawf province, wounding the child seriously, while the mercenaries also fired Katyusha missiles on the house of citizens in Serwah district of Marib province.

who we are     |    Advertising     |    contact us
All rights reserved © Almotamar Net, Developed by