Friday, 24-February-2017 13:37
 
comments in
"Articles"
A message to woman engaging in political battlefields
I can't Agree more
Relations Between Regime and Opposition
thank you for this site GUYS.We need it sincerely
Democracy could not jump
Thanks dearfor your intellectual aspects about DEMOCRACY.you are always great EBTIHAG
Articles
Tuesday, 13-February-2007
Almotamar Net - Doctors use the word “crisis” to describe the point at which a patient either starts to recover or dies. President George W. Bush’s Iraqi patient now seems to have reached that point. Most commentators appear to think that Bush’s latest prescription – a surge of 20,000 additional troops to suppress the militias in Baghdad – will, at best, merely postpone the inevitable death of his dream of a democratic Iraq. Yet as “Battle of Baghdad” begins, factors beyond Bush’s control and not of his making (at least not intentionally) may just save Iraq from its doom. Almoitamar,net Project Syndicate - Doctors use the word “crisis” to describe the point at which a patient either starts to recover or dies. President George W. Bush’s Iraqi patient now seems to have reached that point. Most commentators appear to think that Bush’s latest prescription – a surge of 20,000 additional troops to suppress the militias in Baghdad – will, at best, merely postpone the inevitable death of his dream of a democratic Iraq. Yet as “Battle of Baghdad” begins, factors beyond Bush’s control and not of his making (at least not intentionally) may just save Iraq from its doom.

One key factor is that, for the first time since the United States and Britain invaded Iraq, Arab Sunni leaders are backing a US military plan for that country. These Sunni leaders live in abject fear of the geopolitical earthquake that any disintegration of political authority in Baghdad would bring, believing that all-out civil war would invariably follow – a war that would not respect international borders.

Of course, America has been encouraging Sunni leaders in this belief. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s recent tour of Middle East capitals helped spread the word to Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf states that any US failure and sudden withdrawal would be certain to destabilize them. Given the fragile grip that these leaders have over their societies, America’s warnings have been taken to heart.

But the truly curious factor that might bring success to Bush is that those who have opposed or resented America’s presence in Iraq, such as the Iranian-backed Shi’a parties now also appear to want Bush’s new strategy to succeed. They are for it because they believe it will defang Moqtada al-Sadr, the rogue Shi’a cleric whose power has mushroomed over the past three years – to the point that he now dominates much of Baghdad and holds the allegiance of countless angry young Shi’a men.

Of course, attacking Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army in the name of fighting militia death squads has the potential to draw American military forces into a level of urban warfare unseen since the Falluja assaults of 2004 and 2005. Al-Sadr is seen as the protector of the Shi’a of Iraq and has an estimated 60,000 fighters in his militia. But he is deeply mistrusted by other Shi’a leaders, who fear that they may one day have to take him on by themselves. Better to let the Americans do it, though of course these Shi’a leaders prefer a slow strangulation of al-Sadr to a direct and bloody assault.

But make no mistake: how al-Sadr is handled is the big test of Bush’s new strategy. Should the US choose to face al-Sadr and his forces head on, they risk alienating Iraq’s largest sectarian community, the Shi’a, adding fuel to the anti-occupation resistance and thus probably dooming Bush to failure.

Iran and Syria, which have played a spoiler role in Iraq up to now, may also now be anxious to find a way to pull the country back from the brink. Bush still refuses to talk to either of them, and has lately been having US troops arrest Iranian agents in Iraq. Yet Iran may already see itself as victorious, with the current Iraqi government friendlier than any the Iranians have ever known. So maintaining that government in office has now become a strategic priority for Iran, particularly as it is now clear that any US hopes of using Iraq as a permanent military base are dead.

The “surge” also opens, perhaps for the first time, a serious possibility of pouring water on the insurgent fires in Anbar province, the heartland of the Sunni insurgency. The US has achieved relative successes in the province through alliances with Sunni tribes. The hope is that such realistic and pragmatic accommodations will be extended to Iraqis who are fighting under the banner of a nationalist and anti-occupation agenda.

So some of the stars have come into alignment for Bush. But to keep them there in the long term, the Iraqi government will need to amend the constitution in a way that appeases the Sunni community. Reassuring Iraq’s Sunnis that they have a place in the new Iraq will also reassure neighboring Sunni governments, which have mostly turned a blind eye to the support for the insurgency that has come from their lands.

Of course, should the US see failure ahead, it could seek to broaden the war beyond Iraq’s borders by attacking Iran, a policy reminiscent of “Operation Sideshow,” when US failure in Vietnam in the late 1960’s enticed President Nixon into attacking Cambodia and Laos.

But Iran has resources that Cambodia and Laos could never muster; indeed, its ability to retaliate could set the entire region ablaze. Whereas America’s war in Indochina was a tragic mistake, the cost of a wider war precipitated by the crisis in Iraq would be incomparably greater – for both the patient and the doctor.

Mai Yamani is an author and broadcaster. Her most recent book is Cradle of Islam.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2007.
www.project-syndicate.org


More from "Articles"

Other titles:
Thursday, 16-February-2017
Saudi aggression warplanes pounded on Thursday citizens' houses in Sa'ada province, using internationally banned cluster bombs.

A security official said that the aggression warplanes waged four airstrikes on several parts in Sa'ada city with banned cluster bombs
Thursday, 16-February-2017
President of the Supreme Political Council Saleh al-Sammad visited on Thursday Arhab district in Sana'a governorate, offering condolences to victims of the massacre committed by Saudi criminal aggression warplanes on a the house in the district.


Saudi aggression warplanes pounded on Wednesday afternoon a funeral house in Arhab district of Sana'a province, killing eight women, including
Wednesday, 15-February-2017
The General People's Congress (GPC) condemned Saudi aggression airstrikes on Arhab women funeral house that killed at least ten women and children.

GPC said Saudis have been committing
Wednesday, 15-February-2017
Death toll from Saudi aggression air strikes on a funeral house in Arhab district of Sana'a province on Wednesday afternoon increased to eight women, including children, an official and medics said.

The air strike hit the
Tuesday, 14-February-2017
Three citizens were killed in a Saudi airstrike in Baqam district of Sa'ada province overnight, a local official said on Tuesday.

The Saudi fighter jets struck their car in al-Demnah area, wounding four other people.

The airstrike hit Al Qarrad area, causing heavy damage to citizens' properties and farms.

Meanwhile, Saudi aggression intensively shelled Razah district of the same province, the official added.
Tuesday, 14-February-2017
Three citizens were killed in a Saudi airstrike in Baqam district of Sa'ada province overnight, a local official said on Tuesday.

The Saudi fighter jets struck their car in al
Tuesday, 14-February-2017
Two people were killed in Saudi airstrikes on the telecommunications corporation office in Hodaida province overnight, an official said on Tuesday.

At least six people were wounded in the strikes that hit the office twice. The building was damaged seriously and several cars were crashed, the official added.
Monday, 13-February-2017
Extremely worrying reports suggest that civilians and civilian objects have been targeted, in violation of international humanitarian law and international human rights law, over the past two weeks, in the southwestern port of Al Mokha in Taiz Governorate in Yemen, the United Nations human rights agency warned.

While the intense fighting – both ground fighting and airstrikes – made it impossible for UN Human Rights Office field monitors to access the area and
Monday, 13-February-2017
Saudi aggression warplanes launched an airstrike overnight on al-Omari school in Taiz province, an official said on Monday.

The school was completely destroyed, and the nearby houses were damaged.
Monday, 13-February-2017
Saudi aggression warplanes launched an airstrike on al-Salif port off the Red sea in Hodaida province, killing one fisher man, an official said on Monday.

The Saudi aggression warplanes also launched five airstrikes on al-Dohaimh Island of Hodaida province, causing serious damage to fishermens' boats, the official added.

who we are     |    Advertising     |    contact us
All rights reserved © Almotamar Net, Developed by