Thursday, 30-October-2014 18:07
 
comments in
"Articles"
A message to woman engaging in political battlefields
I can't Agree more
Relations Between Regime and Opposition
thank you for this site GUYS.We need it sincerely
Democracy could not jump
Thanks dearfor your intellectual aspects about DEMOCRACY.you are always great EBTIHAG
Articles
Wednesday, 26-December-2007
Almotamar Net - BERLIN – The recent comprehensive assessment by America’s spy agencies about Iran’s nuclear program and ambitions – the so-called “National Intelligence Estimate” – has opened the door to fresh strategic discussions among the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany. Such a strategic reconsideration is probably most necessary for those in the Bush administration (and a few elsewhere), who until recently have been prophets of imminent danger. Project Syndicate - BERLIN – The recent comprehensive assessment by America’s spy agencies about Iran’s nuclear program and ambitions – the so-called “National Intelligence Estimate” – has opened the door to fresh strategic discussions among the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany. Such a strategic reconsideration is probably most necessary for those in the Bush administration (and a few elsewhere), who until recently have been prophets of imminent danger.

For Europeans, the NIE has not removed, but rather confirmed, the concerns that in 2003 prompted the EU-3 (Britain, France, and Germany) – namely, that Iran’s nuclear program could eventually give it a military nuclear capability, and that even before that point, it might trigger regional nuclear proliferation.

The NIE also confirmed two assumptions that have since guided European diplomatic approach: Iran reacts to external incentives and disincentives, and taking legitimate Iranian interests into consideration is the best way to influence Iran’s leaders. Most Europeans who have been dealing with the issue also assume that Iran is aiming at capacities that would eventually make available all options, including quick development of a nuclear weapon, rather than actually acquiring, let alone testing, a weapon and thereby violating the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

So concern about Iran’s nuclear program is still justified. The robust diplomatic approach that is needed to confront the problem must include three components. First, it should be based on a broad international consensus. Second, it should clearly communicate that the issue is proliferation, not the nature of the Iranian regime. Third, any further sanctions should be accompanied by an earnest offer of dialogue and engagement.

By contrast, some American policymakers continue to believe that Iran would abandon its enrichment program if only the European Union imposed unilateral sanctions. But a clear-headed analysis of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s behavior indicates that EU sanctions would lead to more trade diversion, with China, Russia, Turkey, or Dubai benefiting from reduced levels of European exports to Iran.

Of course, some imports would become more expensive for Iran, but the economic effect of such sanctions would remain limited. Politically, Ahmadinejad certainly would not miss the chance to exploit unilateral measures for propaganda purposes – claiming that Iran has a conflict not with the international community, but with imperialist states intent on depriving his country of technological progress.

For these reasons, Europeans favor a new Security Council resolution, even if its measures are weaker than what the United States or the EU could impose unilaterally. Such a resolution would send an effective signal to the Iranian public and political elite that Iran is in conflict with the entire international community.

Iranians do not like to be isolated; even the clerical elite has a strong interest in exchanges with the rest of the world, and they like to send their children to Western schools. Making it obvious that it is Ahmadinejad’s policies that are isolating Iran would strengthen the still-fragile anti-Ahmadinejad alliance of pragmatic conservatives and reformers, which has lately become more vocal.

This is important to bear in mind, as a parliamentary (majlis) election is scheduled for March 2008. The election will not be entirely free, but the government will be unable to manipulate them entirely. The majlis plays a role in the political process, to the point of being able to induce or hinder policy changes: witness the way a conservative majlis blocked reformist President Mohammad Khatami in the last years of his term.

Europeans should now be confident enough to call for a common policy with the US that focuses on domestic developments in Iran. Such a policy can include additional Security Council sanctions, but it must also carry an offer of dialogue that pragmatic forces in Iran would not refuse.

Both the EU and the US should be prepared to enter into direct, comprehensive, and unconditional negotiations with Iran. Where security guarantees are concerned, America is Iran’s actual foe and potential partner. So far, the two governments have communicated either through the EU or on strictly limited issues through their ambassadors in Baghdad. The US has so far insisted that it will agree to a comprehensive dialogue only if Iran first suspends its enrichment activities. But this should be the result of, not a precondition for, negotiations.

Whatever the US and Europe decide to do about Iran will affect that country’s internal political dynamics. There are no easy mechanics at work here. The best method of strengthening Ahmadinejad, however, appears to be to threaten the country and the regime as a whole. An honest offer of engagement would allow Ahmadinejad’s pragmatic opponents to show that it is Iran’s president and his controversial policies, not the West, that are at fault.

Volker Perthes is Chairman and Director of Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2007.
www.project-syndicate.org

More from "Articles"

Other titles:
Monday, 27-October-2014
In hope of resolving poverty and facing the community development challenges to meet up with the sustainable development goals agenda, and its subsequent problems on the community, in third world countries; a lot of institutions and governmental bodies invest a lot of efforts and attention into community participation. One of the most important research methodologies introduced in the recent present is the Participatory Action Research which relies entirely on community participation in every aspect of the research from setting goals to presenting the final results. Rather than having community participation as just a research method, this methodology promotes it to become a way of life amongst all segments of the community.
Sunday, 26-October-2014
The Special Adviser to the UN Secretary-General on Yemen Jamal Benomar said on Saturday that accelerating the implementation of the Peace and National Partnership Agreement is regarded the best way towards the peaceful change to preserve Yemen security and stability.

Upon arrival in Sana’a, Benomar said that he will meet with President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi and the newly assigned Prime Minister Khaled Bahah, in addition to political leaders of all political spectra.
Saturday, 25-October-2014

Troops of the 17th Infantry Brigade in Taiz province have held 41 Ethiopian infiltrators, as disembarked from a smuggling boat in Yemeni waters at Ban al-Mandab area.

commander of the 17th Infantry Brigade ,Brigadier Saleh al-Subari, pointed out that the boat was monitored at the Yemeni waters while unloading the Ethiopians at the Yemeni coasts.
Friday, 24-October-2014
President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi received on Friday cables of congratulations on the occasion of the Hijri new year.

The cables were sent by King Abdullah II of Jordan, President Mahmmod Abas of Palestine and Prime Minster of Bahrain, Khalif bin Salman Al Khalifa.
Thursday, 23-October-2014
The Constitution Drafting Committee headed on Wednesday to the United Arab Emirates in order to continue holding its meetings in the capital Abu Dhabi for one month.


“The Committee will start meetings as of Thursday in Abu Dhabi as per its action plan and within the framework of finalizing and revising the first draft of the constitution,” says head of the Committee Ibrahim al-Wazir as quoted by the NDC Media Center.
Wednesday, 22-October-2014
The Cabinet on Wednesday urged all the concerned political parties to accelerate the formation of a new government.

In its meeting, which was chaired by Acting Prime Minister and Minister of Electricity Abdullah al-Akwa, the cabinet pointed to the importance of the new government formation in stabilizing the political, economic and security situation and overcoming the current problems.

The cabinet's meeting touched on a number of topics, especially the issues related to the service and development aspects.

The cabinet stressed the need to keep the different educational institutions away from any conflicts and the importance of commitment of all parties to maintain the safety of employees and students in these education institutions.
Wednesday, 22-October-2014
President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi sent on Wednesday a cable of congratulations to the Secretary-General of the United Nations Ban Ki-moon on the occasion of the United Nations Day.

The UN Day marks on 24 October the anniversary of the entry into force in 1945 of the UN Charter.
Tuesday, 21-October-2014
President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi received on Tuesday head and members of Constitution Drafting Committee (CDC).

During the meeting, Hadi was briefed on the progress the committee has made to date in drafting the new constitution.
Monday, 20-October-2014
President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi chaired on Monday a meeting of the panel of presidential advisors along with Prime Minister-designate Khalid Bahah.

They reviewed the latest developments in the local arena, besides procedures to form a new government and distribution of the ministerial portfolios in accordance with criteria agreed upon by all components.
Sunday, 19-October-2014

Ibb University Council approved Sunday the halt of study in different colleges for a week due to security reasons in the governorate.

The council formed a committee to communicate with the local authority and concerned political forces to withdraw their militants from near the university for it is an educational institution to the governorate's sons.

who we are     |    Advertising     |    contact us
All rights reserved © Almotamar Net, Developed by