Tuesday, 02-September-2014 19:38
 
comments in
"Articles"
A message to woman engaging in political battlefields
I can't Agree more
Relations Between Regime and Opposition
thank you for this site GUYS.We need it sincerely
Democracy could not jump
Thanks dearfor your intellectual aspects about DEMOCRACY.you are always great EBTIHAG
Articles
Wednesday, 26-December-2007
Almotamar Net - BERLIN – The recent comprehensive assessment by America’s spy agencies about Iran’s nuclear program and ambitions – the so-called “National Intelligence Estimate” – has opened the door to fresh strategic discussions among the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany. Such a strategic reconsideration is probably most necessary for those in the Bush administration (and a few elsewhere), who until recently have been prophets of imminent danger. Project Syndicate - BERLIN – The recent comprehensive assessment by America’s spy agencies about Iran’s nuclear program and ambitions – the so-called “National Intelligence Estimate” – has opened the door to fresh strategic discussions among the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany. Such a strategic reconsideration is probably most necessary for those in the Bush administration (and a few elsewhere), who until recently have been prophets of imminent danger.

For Europeans, the NIE has not removed, but rather confirmed, the concerns that in 2003 prompted the EU-3 (Britain, France, and Germany) – namely, that Iran’s nuclear program could eventually give it a military nuclear capability, and that even before that point, it might trigger regional nuclear proliferation.

The NIE also confirmed two assumptions that have since guided European diplomatic approach: Iran reacts to external incentives and disincentives, and taking legitimate Iranian interests into consideration is the best way to influence Iran’s leaders. Most Europeans who have been dealing with the issue also assume that Iran is aiming at capacities that would eventually make available all options, including quick development of a nuclear weapon, rather than actually acquiring, let alone testing, a weapon and thereby violating the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

So concern about Iran’s nuclear program is still justified. The robust diplomatic approach that is needed to confront the problem must include three components. First, it should be based on a broad international consensus. Second, it should clearly communicate that the issue is proliferation, not the nature of the Iranian regime. Third, any further sanctions should be accompanied by an earnest offer of dialogue and engagement.

By contrast, some American policymakers continue to believe that Iran would abandon its enrichment program if only the European Union imposed unilateral sanctions. But a clear-headed analysis of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s behavior indicates that EU sanctions would lead to more trade diversion, with China, Russia, Turkey, or Dubai benefiting from reduced levels of European exports to Iran.

Of course, some imports would become more expensive for Iran, but the economic effect of such sanctions would remain limited. Politically, Ahmadinejad certainly would not miss the chance to exploit unilateral measures for propaganda purposes – claiming that Iran has a conflict not with the international community, but with imperialist states intent on depriving his country of technological progress.

For these reasons, Europeans favor a new Security Council resolution, even if its measures are weaker than what the United States or the EU could impose unilaterally. Such a resolution would send an effective signal to the Iranian public and political elite that Iran is in conflict with the entire international community.

Iranians do not like to be isolated; even the clerical elite has a strong interest in exchanges with the rest of the world, and they like to send their children to Western schools. Making it obvious that it is Ahmadinejad’s policies that are isolating Iran would strengthen the still-fragile anti-Ahmadinejad alliance of pragmatic conservatives and reformers, which has lately become more vocal.

This is important to bear in mind, as a parliamentary (majlis) election is scheduled for March 2008. The election will not be entirely free, but the government will be unable to manipulate them entirely. The majlis plays a role in the political process, to the point of being able to induce or hinder policy changes: witness the way a conservative majlis blocked reformist President Mohammad Khatami in the last years of his term.

Europeans should now be confident enough to call for a common policy with the US that focuses on domestic developments in Iran. Such a policy can include additional Security Council sanctions, but it must also carry an offer of dialogue that pragmatic forces in Iran would not refuse.

Both the EU and the US should be prepared to enter into direct, comprehensive, and unconditional negotiations with Iran. Where security guarantees are concerned, America is Iran’s actual foe and potential partner. So far, the two governments have communicated either through the EU or on strictly limited issues through their ambassadors in Baghdad. The US has so far insisted that it will agree to a comprehensive dialogue only if Iran first suspends its enrichment activities. But this should be the result of, not a precondition for, negotiations.

Whatever the US and Europe decide to do about Iran will affect that country’s internal political dynamics. There are no easy mechanics at work here. The best method of strengthening Ahmadinejad, however, appears to be to threaten the country and the regime as a whole. An honest offer of engagement would allow Ahmadinejad’s pragmatic opponents to show that it is Iran’s president and his controversial policies, not the West, that are at fault.

Volker Perthes is Chairman and Director of Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2007.
www.project-syndicate.org

More from "Articles"

Other titles:
Sunday, 31-August-2014

Soldiers of the 2nd Infantry Brigade managed on Sunday to foil an attack by al-Qaeda elements against Mafraq Al-Houtah and Al-Jasr in Azzan in Shabwa governorate.

During the attack, an explosive car blew off in Jawl Al-Raida area.

An informed military source said that terror elements leaked on Sunday at noon time through one of the valleys which stretch to Mayfa’ah area and carried out their terror attack against the soldiers while having their lunch
Sunday, 31-August-2014
The Gulf Cooperation Council's (GCC) Secretary General has stressed the GCC States' adherence to maintain Yemen's unity, security and stability.

The GCC States fully support the efforts of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi to complete the transitional stage based on the GCC-initiative and its executive mechanism in order to achieve the Yemeni people's aspiration, Abdul Latif al-Zayani said in a joint press conference with Kuwait's First Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sabah Khaled al-Sabah, the
Saturday, 30-August-2014
One soldier and five al-Qaeda terrorists were killed on Saturday in clashes between the army and al-Qaida militants in Qatan district of Hadramout province.

Intelligence information has been obtained on suspicious movements of terrorist groups towards Qatan district, a military source said, adding that a plan has been prepared to foil the attack led to blowing up two suicide car bombs near a camp of special security forces and killing all terrorists on the cars.
Thursday, 28-August-2014
President Abdu-Rabbu Mansour Hadi received on Thursday Egyptian Ambassador to Yemen Ashraf Aqel on the occasion of the end of his diplomatic term in Yemen.

President Hadi praised the efforts made by the ambassador in the way of enhancing the bilateral relations between Yemen and Egypt.
Thursday, 28-August-2014
President Abdu-Rabbu Mansour Hadi received on Wednesday board members of the Popular Alignment Body for the Protection of National Gains, led by Yehia Hussein al-Arashi, member of Shura Council.

During the meeting, Hadi talked about a number of issues Yemen has been experiencing since the eruption of 2011's crisis, saying that the country has overcome various challenges and difficulties until holding the National Dialogue Conference, noting also steps and measures taken to handle that crisis.
Wednesday, 27-August-2014
Troops of the First Military Region raided on Wednesday a den of terrorists in al-Aqad area in Sayoun town of Hadramout province, killing three al-Qaeda terrorists and injuring others.

A military source in the First Military Region's command said that the clashes with the terrorists resulted in injuring of a soldiers.
Sunday, 24-August-2014
GPC celebrated its 32 anniversary where it was found on August 24, 1982 as the first Yemeni political organization with the participation of all political forces.
celebratory events of the GPC were celebrated in the Sana'a and its branches in various governorates of Yemen.
Saturday, 23-August-2014
- The presidential national committee headed by Deputy Prime Minister Dr. Ahmed Obaid bin Daghr has continued its meetings in Saada province with the leadership of Ansar Allah Abdul-Malik al-Houthi.

The official spokesman of the presidential committee, Abdul-Malik al-Mikhlafi, said that the committee presented during the meetings a comprehensive agreement draft.

Al-Mikhlafi pointed out that the committee discussed with the leadership of Ansar Allah
Tuesday, 19-August-2014
Military units of the second Military Region raided on Monday a villa in 60 street in Mukala, which was used as a den by a terrorist cell to carry out terrorist acts.

A military source at the Military Region command said on Tuesday that the military forces surrounded the villa after receiving the information about the existence of a terrorist cell and clashed with the terrorists.

who we are     |    Advertising     |    contact us
All rights reserved © Almotamar Net, Developed by