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International
Tuesday, 19-February-2008
Almotamar Net - They were expelled from their first school together. They fought in Cuba’s Sierra Maestra together. And, following their victory over the forces of Fulgencio Batista, they have ruled Cuba together for nearly 50 years. But although Fidel became a worldwide icon, instantly recognisable by his first name alone, his younger brother, Raúl, has remained a virtual unknown. almotamar.net google news - They were expelled from their first school together. They fought in Cuba’s Sierra Maestra together. And, following their victory over the forces of Fulgencio Batista, they have ruled Cuba together for nearly 50 years. But although Fidel became a worldwide icon, instantly recognisable by his first name alone, his younger brother, Raúl, has remained a virtual unknown.
Even in Cuba, people know little about the mysterious and deeply private man who has effectively run the country since Fidel Castro underwent emergency intestinal surgery in July 2006.
Now that Fidel has officially stepped down as head of state, the question is being asked: Who is Raúl Castro and how will he rule the country?
Despite their long and close collaboration, the Castro brothers were in many ways polar opposites.
Fidel was an unusually charismatic leader with a strong hold over the affections of many Cubans, despite the many hardships of life under his rule. He has revelled in the limelight, speaking at public events for up to seven hours at a time and, in the 1960s, mastering the global medium of television before virtually anyone else.
Raúl, by contrast, has kept a low profile, seemingly content to live in his brother’s shadow. Still, those who have watched him say he should not be underestimated.
Though the 76-year-old lacks his brother’s charisma, he is a tough and highly-effective operator, able to be pragmatic and, when necessary, ruthless. He controls the three most powerful institutions in Cuba – the military, the security services and Communist Party – and has no real challenger in sight.
“Fidel has been the visionary, but hopelessly disorganised," said Brian Latell, a retired CIA officer and author of 'After Fidel', a biography of the Castro brothers. “Raúl has provided the organisational glue. That's why he has been the one truly indispensable man in the revolution, other than Fidel himself.”
Particularly in the early years, Raúl acted as his brother’s hard-line enforcer, eliminating opponents and earning himself the nickname “The Prussian” for his cold, efficient style.
Photographs from the late-1950s show him as a slight young man, directing summary executions of scores of Batista’s fighters. Throughout the years, he has sent even close friends to the firing squad, men like General Arnaldo Ochoa, a highly-decorated veteran of Cuba’s campaigns in Africa.
A far more pragmatic side of Raúl Castro has been on display since the collapse of the Soviet Union. As head of the armed forces, one of the few well-functioning institutions in Cuba, he oversaw the opening of the economy to foreign tourism, to US dollars and to limited private enterprise.
With the prospect of starvation in Cuba following the demise of its Communist patron, he also allowed agricultural producers to sell some of their food on the private markets.
Analysts believe these steps probably saved the regime from collapse in the mid-1990s. But Fidel never liked them, and progressively tightened-up over the past five years as the worst of the crisis receded. Many Cubans chafe at the renewed restrictions on their lives, particularly as the state can no longer provide enough food to survive on.
“Cubans want an economic opening – or at least for the changes that are already occurring to be legalised,” said Susanne Gratius, an analyst at the Madrid-based foreign policy think-tank, FRIDE.
“People have to make a living because the state no longer guarantees people’s survival. So there is a hidden, informal economy and I think they have to give people more economic freedom.”
Many Cubans say Raúl will have no option but to give Cubans more leeway, economically if not politically. “People here say they are fidelistas, but not necessarily socialistas,” said an analyst in Havana, who asked to remain anonymous. Without Fidel, “Raúl will have to renegotiate an agreement with the Cuban people”.
Raúl is hardly likely to jettison half-a-century of socialist reforms and throw the country open to foreign capital, as Russia did in the 1990s. But he has hinted that he wishes to gradually open up the system, acknowledging the “excessive number of prohibitions” in Cuba and starting a national debate about the shortcomings of the regime.
Cuba-watchers believe Raúl may gradually extend Cubans’ ability to work for themselves in modest ways, running hostels, private restaurants or driving their own taxis. But, mindful of the Soviet Union’s fate, he is unlikely to remove the most draconian restrictions on things like travelling abroad or forming political parties.
Over the longer term, some Cuba-watchers say Raúl wishes to emulate the early phases of the “Chinese model”, cautiously opening-up the economy while maintaining strict political control.
To succeed, however, he would probably need to see some relaxation of the 46-year-old US trade embargo. Whereas Fidel harnessed anti-American sentiment to rally Cubans and maintain his grip on power, Raúl may see benefits in a more accommodating stance towards the US.
“Fidel has governed for so long through revolutionary circus,” Mr Latell said. “Raúl is going to have to provide bread, and he knows that. Raúl is not a circus master.”
Since being appointed acting president, Raúl has said he is amenable to negotiations with the US, provided it does not interfere in Cuban affairs.
In other ways, too, he has shown himself to be different to Fidel. He has appeared little in public and spoken less. He has run the government in a far more collegial manner than his brother, who delegated little, brooked no argument and took decisions alone. Raúl has kept things running smoothly during his brothers’ sickness by working with half-a-dozen experienced government officials, unthinkable under Fidel.
Still, any departure from the style or policies of his brother is not without risk for Raúl. His collective style of leadership has worked well so far, but some question whether he can continue that way for long.
Already, there is talk of a split between pragmatists like Raúl and hard-line, Fidel loyalists. Men like Felipe Pérez Roque, the foreign minister, are jokingly called the “Tropical Taleban” for their rumoured opposition to any departure from Socialist orthodoxy.
For Raúl, any economic opening also poses dangers. One of the reasons Fidel disliked private property is that it reduced his political control over Cubans. It is hard for people to rebel against the government when it is the country’s sole employer. Allowing greater private enterprise could alleviate the chronic shortages of basic items, but would also make Cubans less dependent on the regime.
“Once you start opening up the Cuban economy, it’s going to be hard to stay in power because there are so many forces at work,” said Ms Gratius.
Another crucial question is whether Venezuela will continue to underwrite Cuba’s economy. President Hugo Chávez saw Fidel Castro as a “father” – and provided around $2 billion in annual aid. It is not clear whether Raúl will continue to benefit from the same largesse.
“Fidel had a very special relationship with Chávez,” said Peter Hakim, president of Inter-American Dialogue in Washington DC. “ It’s unclear what [Chávez’s] relationship is to Raúl. There’s a lot of Kremlinology, reading of tea leaves on that. But I don’t think anybody really knows.”
The US is another key factor. In theory, the White House will no more deal with Raúl than it has with his older brother. A 1996 law also bars the US from dealing with Raúl – not that the White House has been rushing to embrace him.
But there are reasons to believe the US will not be pushing especially hard for his overthrow, either.
A collapse of law-and-order could prompt tens, maybe hundreds of thousands of Cubans to flee on rafts to Miami – as they have three times in the past. With no authoritarian government to stop it, a fourth seaborne exodus could make previous episodes seem small by comparison.
“I think the Bush administration puts a very high priority on the preservation of stability on the island,” said Mr Latell. “For the administration to do anything to encourage or incite instability on the island would just have a terrible backlash. I think they're quite realistic about this.”
Until recently, few people would have imagined that Raúl Castro would be seen as Cuba’s best hope for reform. Still fewer would have imagined that the US would be secretly hoping he succeeds.

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